Friday, December 21, 2007

Why Does Flu Spread in Winter

New York researchers tell us that winter months foster the spread of flu virus because of the construct of the virus itself. The virus is more stable and remains airborne longer when the air is cold and dry. This describes our winter conditions exactly, and explains why these months see an increase in influenza type illness.

Influenza is more likely to be transmitted during winter on the way to work and school than it is in a warm room says the chairman of the microbiology department at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Peter Palese.

This reinforces the reminders of infection prevention: wash your hands frequently, cough and sneeze into your sleeve (rather than into your hand), dispose of used tissues immediately, and if possible, avoid face-to-face contact with people suffering from influenza.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Washing Your Hands Of It

The United Nations recently reported that finding bird flu in German waterfowl is a sign the disease is being transmitted by seemingly healthy ducks and geese.

If birds do not show symptoms of the disease it is almost impossible to isolate or eradicate it. Because of this, they warn, Europe should prepare for more outbreaks. The source of bird flu in Britain remains unknown. It has now spread to 60 countries.

The BBC News informs us the UK is doubling its stockpile of antiviral medicines, but researchers believe simple low-cost physical measures could potentially provide an important defence against a pandemic.

"Wash your hands, and if it is a really bad epidemic, avoid contact with people and keep your distance... Soap and water is cheap and it could save your life or your baby's life."

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Rising Number of Incidents

A 31 year old man has died in of bird flu in Indonesia, bringing their death toll there to 91. It is yet unclear if the man contracted the disease by coming into contact with sick fowl or by another means.



Meanwhile, outbreaks of bird flu in fowl are now occurring on a farm in Llanfihangl Glyn Myfyr in North Wales, and in Suffolk, England.



Governments world wide continue vigilance in keeping track of outbreaks of bird flu in fowl, human illness and death due to bird flu, and viral mutations that allow transmission from human to human.



Authorities in all countries are concerned about the need for preparedness in their populations without inducing panic. They continue to urge pandemic planning for everyone including large business continuity planning to individual preparedness and personal hygiene precautions.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Uganda: Bird Flu Spreads Among Humans - WHO

The influenza pandemic will likely start without warning, and reach crisis stage within days, to weeks.



Researchers have, for the first time, proven that the virus has now spread between a "cluster" of people.



The H5N1 strain of bird flu has finally managed to spread from person to person, according to officials of the World Health Organization (WHO).



Previously it was believed that bird flu could have spread between humans on several occasions. Person to person infection was suspected but could not be confirmed.



Two distinct family clusters, one in Thailand, one in Turkey, have been declared to have been contaminated through intimate or close contact.



Full details can be found at: http://allafrica.com/stories/200710220119.html

Friday, September 28, 2007

Database Lists Choice Pandemic Planning Resources

A newly launched website is an on-line collection of peer-reviewed resources for pandemic planning. The site describes, and provides links to, 130 promising practices from 4 different countries.

It is compiled to save time and resources, rather than leaving everyone to craft strategies from scratch.

The site addresses three key areas: altering standards of clinical care; communicating effectively about pandemic flu; and delaying and reducing the impact of a pandemic.

Look for: www.PandemicPractices.org

Friday, August 31, 2007

"Pandemic: A Possible Look at the Future"

BBC has produced a 1hr. 28 min. "docu-drama" entitled "Pandemic: A Possible Look at the Future".

It shows how one individual, infected with the H5N1 virus, could affect every nation on earth within a matter of weeks. It makes the plausibility of such an event very real.

The documentary portion of this video uses the latest scientific research, presented by experts in the field, to explain how the virus operates, how it mutates, and how we are at risk.

The dramatization shows in a powerful way how realistic the threat is, and how ill-prepared we are at present.

If you take the time to watch the video at the following URL you will have a clear picture of what we are facing:

http://www.video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7443717071229476088&q=pandemic+duration%3Along&total=73&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=5

For more information on Pandemic planning from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta (403) 245-0550. is “The time to plan when you have time to plan.”

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Look After Yourself

During an influenza pandemic, demand for health care services will increase at the same time as health care workers are ill with influenza themselves or are staying home to look after sick family members.

Most people who get influenza will not be sick enough to require medical care and can be looked after at home.


For more information check the following link: http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=look+after+yourself+-+vancouver+coastal+health&btnG=Google+Search&meta=

Source:

Vancouver Costal Health

For more information on Pandemic planning from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Indonesia – 80% fatality rate update

The Ministry of Health of Indonesia has announced a new case of human infection of H5N1 avian influenza. A 17-year-old female from Tangerang District, in Banten Province developed symptoms on 9 August , was hospitalized on 13 August and died in hospital on 14 August . Her source of exposure is currently under investigation.

Of the 104 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 83 have been fatal.

Source:

World Health Organization http://www.who.int/csr/don/2007_08_16/en/index.html

For more information on Pandemic planning from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Indonesian government witholds important info for political ends.

We recently passed on a news item about a possible H2H (person to person) flu’ death in Indonesia.

According to Reuters, a report from Government officials there says:

"She had indirect contact with dead chickens near her school," Joko Suyono, an official at the ministry's bird flu centre, said by telephone. The victim, from the city of Cilegon in Banten province, had initially been identified as a six-year-old boy, but Suyono said this was due to a mix up between the hospital where she was treated and a laboratory. The official said that tests on dead chickens found near the girl's school showed they were infected with bird flu.

"We cannot know whether she touched sick chickens or not because she died. But we know surrounding her school the virus is endemic (in fowl)," he added. Suyono said tests for the virus on people who may have had contact with the girl had proved negative and also said the findings in this case ruled out the possibility of the virus being transmitted between humans. "So far, there have been no human-to-human cases in Indonesia," he said.

Now we have different reports, and speculation is rife that the Indonesian government is withholding important information for its own political ends.

Indonesia has been playing “hardball” with WHO over providing them with virus samples from cases that have occurred there – their fear being that they will provide the critical data required for producing a vaccine but will not be able to enough of it for their own populations when a pandemic hits. I’d say their fears about being short are probably pretty well founded, but it calls into question what information is believable when issued by government spokespeople.

What we do know, to date is that the virus has mutated several times since first isolated in 1997, that the strain in Egypt appears to be somewhat resistant to Tamiflu (and primary anti viral stockpiled by Western Countries, including Canada), and that the virus appears to be endemic in all poultry in Indonesia and possibly a number of other Asian countries. This means that there will continue to be a transmission from birds to people in the Far East with the high possibility of a mutation occurring making it transmissible from human to human.

WHO is very cautious about releasing data unless confirmed through their own laboratory, and thus has not moved their pandemic stage from 3 (animal to human) to stage 4 (human to human in small, contained areas). However, there are some researchers in the area who believe that WHO should, in fact, move their stage from 3 to 4 based on small clusters that do not appear to have been infected from direct animal contact.

We will keep you up to date as additional information is acquired.

Source:

Reuters (2007). Indonesia still probing source of bird flu death (Electronic version). Retrieved July 12, 2007
http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7093628848455704242

For more information on Pandemic planning from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Friday, July 13, 2007

Flu victim had no poultry contact'

According to the AgenceFrance-Presse, a six-year-old Indonesian boy who died of bird flu last weekend had no apparent contact with poultry, an agriculture ministry official said.

The boy from Cilegon in Banten province, just west of the capital Jakarta, was Indonesia's 81st bird flu victim. Contact with infected birds is the most common form of transmission of the deadly virus to humans, experts say. Memed Zulkarnaen, director of the agriculture ministry's bird flu unit, said no infected poultry had been found within a radius of up to 300 metres (yards) from the boy's home.

"The Indonesian medical community is still puzzled and does not understand from which source the victim was infected with the bird flu virus,'' he said. "We are puzzled because the H5N1 virus needs to 'stick' to an object such as poultry and cannot freely circulate in the air,'' he said. Asked whether there was a possibility the boy had contracted the virus from another person, Mr Zulkarnaen said it was too premature to tell and investigations involving personnel from the UN's health and agriculture agencies were ongoing.

Sardikin Giriputro, deputy director of Jakarta's Sulianti Saroso hospital, where the boy died, said on Tuesday that the boy had visited relatives who lived near a zoo elsewhere in Banten province, four days before he fell sick. Indonesia is the nation worst hit by avian influenza. It confirmed its first human case in July 2005, but the source of infection in that particular case was never determined. Scientists worry the bird flu virus could mutate into a form easily spread among humans, leading to a global pandemic with the potential to kill millions.

The fear stems from past influenza pandemics. A flu pandemic in 1918, just after the end of World War I, killed 20 million people worldwide. Separately on Wednesday, the national committee overseeing Indonesia's bird flu fight along with UNICEF were to begin distributing 7,000 protective kits to villages in Banten province, where at least 10 bird flu deaths have occurred. The kits contain gloves, masks, soap, an informational VCD, a banner and booklet.About 100,000 kits were distributed in high-risk areas in May, a statement from the committee said. Indonesia stepped up its campaign this year to battle bird flu, barring Jakarta residents from the popular practice of keeping poultry in their backyards.

Officials were criticized for being slow to act when avian influenza first appeared in the archipelago nation.

Source: The Daily Telegraph, Australian newspaper, 11 July 2007.

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Attitude survey on Bird Flu

University of British Columbia is conducting a survey on attitudes about Bird Flu – the url is: http://www.psych.ubc.ca/~adlab/avianflusurvey.htm


For facts and updates about the Bird Flu, please visit the following sites:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/


For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”


Bird flu resurfaced with a vengeance in Vietnam

According to the London Free Press, five people fell ill in as many weeks - after no human cases had been reported for a year and a half - in Hanoi, Vietnam last month.

Health experts say the spike is a sobering reminder that the H5N1 virus remains deep-rooted and can kill at any time. The virus also has flared elsewhere, with people falling ill in China, Egypt and Indonesia this month alone. And poultry outbreaks have surfaced in Myanmar, Malaysia and as far afield as the Czech Republic. Vietnam, previously hailed as Asia's bright spot for beating back the virus, has seen an unexpected surge since last month, when it reported its first human case since November 2005. Two patients have died, two have recovered and one is critically ill.

Source: London Free Press, 23 June 2007.

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Monday, April 30, 2007

New Bird Flu strains show spread to the West.

A recent paper released from the University of Maryland, indicates an international team of researchers reported the first ever large scale sequencing of western avian flu genomes.

In case you were wondering..... a 'genome' refers to all of a living thing's genetic material. It's the entire set of hereditary instructions for building, running, maintaining and reproducing an organism. The whole shebang. 'Genome sequencing' is figuring out the order of DNA neucleotides which consists of a code of genetic letters. DNA sequencing on a large scale, is mostly done by high-tech machines.

These researchers collected 36 genomes from wild birds (follow the arrows of the map on the right). The study basically confirms the spread of H5N1 from the Far East to Europe, the Middle-East and Africa. It is the virus' capacity to rapidly mutate into a pathogen that may eventually be passed between humans, that concerns health officials about a world wide pandemic.

The interesting thing is that Steven Salzberg, the study's lead author says: "The migratory pathways of wild birds don't correspond with the movement of the genomes that we sequenced." This points to the possibilty of human movement, rather than wild birds as the reason for the quick spread of the H5N1.

Source: http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_54924.shtml

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Insurance coverage during an influenza pandemic

"The federal government recently urged the health insurance industry to gird itself for business continuity, protect its employees, and consider changing certain practices to help enrollees get and pay for care during an influenza pandemic.

In a checklist released Mar 21, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) encouraged health insurers to provide cross-training for employees, prepare retirees to backfill essential roles, and contract with temporary staffing agencies.

Among practices and policies that HHS recommends insurers consider during a pandemic to maintain "access to healthcare and health insurance coverage" are:

- Deferring rate increases
- Temporarily suspending business rules for prior medical authorization, precertification, and pharmacy refill limitations
- Extending time periods for filing claims
- Waiving copayment obligations

Among insurers working on business continuity plans, Indiana-based WellPoint Inc., which provides healthcare benefits to approximately 3.2 million people, says it will comply with all state and federal regulatory guidelines, including those that could override benefit language.

At Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon, spokeswoman Samantha Meese says her organization agrees that topics outlined in the HHS checklist need to be addressed. Regence is consulting with the BlueCross BlueShield Association, America's Health Insurance Plans (a national lobbying association based in Washington, DC), and HHS to ensure their organizations can work together during an outbreak.

Kevin Goodlin, a senior manager in Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu's Global Security Office, brings a different point of view to the discussion. Whether employees are insured or not will not matter in a pandemic, he says. "Since healthcare is in finite supply, having health insurance may not be enough in a major pandemic," he says. Deloitte encourages employees to buy supplies of over-the-counter medicine, order more than a month's supply of prescription drugs, and ask their doctors about antivirals such as Tamiflu".

Source: Apr 12, 2007 (CIDRAP Source Weekly Briefing)


For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Will there be enough food supply available during a pandemic?

Gloria Galloway from The Globe and Mail says food industry reps and government are meeting this week to talk about ways of getting food to your table in the event of a pandemic.

Much focus around pandemic preparedness has been on the health sector, while grocery store shelves could be left empty when the pandemic hits. Worst case scenarios predict that the pandemic can take out a third of the work force. Bear in mind that farmers, food producers and distributors are not immune against the disease.

It is suggested government would have little control over food distribution during a pandemic because the responsibility for the supply chain lies in the hands of private industry. Nick Jennery, CEO of the Canada Council of Grocery Distributors says food producers and suppliers have started to work on pandemic preparedness two years ago. "Being prepared for a crisis, whether it's pandemic or otherwise, is part of the business we're in" Mr. Jennery said in an interview with The Globe and Mail on Monday.

According to Galloway, Agriculture Canada asked industry to come up with a list of 20 non-perishable food products that could continue to be produced here in Canada in the event of a crisis.


For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Managing your mental health during a disaster

According to a recent article from the Mayo Clinic widespread disease such as an Avian flu outbreak, can cause mental health issues for those who have to live through the trauma. But, how would you cope with an existing mental health issue when disaster breaks out and health care services are disrupted?

Here are some coping strategies:

1. Plan ahead.

Talk to your health professional - some points you may want to talk about include getting to the clinic, changing appointment locations, how you can care for yourself or even general concern about the psychological effects of a disaster.

Have an emergency survival kit - be sure it is stocked and you kow where it is.

Have a contact network - make sure people know to check on you.

2. Managing medications during disaster.

Have a buffer supply - keep at least a 5-day supply. Remember you may not be able to get a refill immediately. Phone lines may be down and pharmacies closed or you may not be able to travel. Be sure to talk to your health insurance provider in advance about prescription refill requirements.

3. Managing therapy during a disaster.

Plan for disruption - prepare yourself now for possible closures so that you don't run into unpleasant surprises. Consider talking to your therapist now about possibly trying to connect by phone or email.

Call on your skills - if you can't get to a therapy session, then use that time to reflect on what you've learned in therapy. Remember the healthy coping tools you've learned and problem solving skills you've gained. Use positive self-talk to help chase away negative thoughts.

Do your own version of group therapy - if you attend group therapy, consider talking to the group about disaster planning.

4. Self-care strategies during a disaster.

Get in touch with disaster workers - remember that health care professionals are trained in disaster management. Hospitals and clinics have disaster plans in place.

Touch base with others - if possible, talk to family, friends, faith groups and others who can offer you help, comfort and support. People can work together to solve problems and encourage each other. Let them know if you need help.

Help someone else - if you're able, then lend a hand to someone who is less fortunate. This can give you a huge morale boost and make you feel better about yourself, besides helping the other person.

Build skills for resilience - people who are resilient can weather hardships and stress better than those who aren't. Even if you're coping with depression, anxiety or any other mental condition, you can still be resilient. Some ways to build this, may be by developing a strong support network, having goals, thinking well of yourself and remaining flexible.

Keep a positive frame of mind - look for the small nuggets of hope and good things during a disaster. This can help you find meaning and purpose, help you think positively about the future and help you function even in the worse of times.

One of the ironic things about disaster is that they have the potential to bring out the best in people. You may also see people helping each other in ways you never thought possible - the world may not seem so uncaring after all.


For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Ethical issues in Pandemic Planning

South Carolina is buying enough medicine to cover at least a quarter of its 4.3 million people. The likelihood is high that more than a quarter of its population could get sick from the first wave alone.

So the question is; who should receive the vaccine first? The answer to this ethical question could decide who lives and who dies. South Carolina's state epidemiologist, Dr. Jerry Gibson points out some of the main ethical issues when planning for a pandemic:

1. Who gets to decide what is done, and how?
2. How do you make sure more good than harm is done?
3. How do you minimize the harm done, while trying to do good?

Some ways in deciding who gets the limited medicine may include:

People could be chosen randomly, but this wouldn't necessary treat the sickest or the most likely to survive. Those with occupations considered to be critical to public health, could receive the vaccination first. But who gets to decide what those are? Federal recommendations call for those who are hospitalized with the flu and front-line health care workers. Lower on the list are outpatients and workers in other critical areas. Civil liberties questions could arise too.

Some folks may be isolated or quarantined. Will this violate their individual rights? Who will take care of their medical, food and other needs?

Will people get a chance to say how they will be affected by restrictions or provisions, during the pre-planning stage? Last summer a pandemic in each county was held and included people from business, schools, ethnic minorities and other groups.

How will you provide folks with the opportunity to "speak up" on issues involving possible ethical dilemmas?

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Friday, February 23, 2007

HUNT PERSONNEL / TEMPORARILY YOURS PRESENTS:

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Preparing for a Pandemic

Presenter: Dr. Pat Pitsel
When: Thursday March 22, 2007
Time: 7:30 - 9:00 a.m.
Location: Sheraton Eau Claire
Cost: $125 pp
includes continental breakfast, workshop & Pandemic Planning Guide

The Time to Plan is When You Have Time to Plan…

The Motivation!

Planning for a potentially catastrophic event that has never occurred in the lifetime of most of us… is particularly difficult.

It is especially challenging for businesses that may have a business continuity plan that covers physical disasters but who have no plans for a catastrophe that impacts the Human Capital in the organization.

Be Ready! Join us as renowned presenter, psychologist, educator and Human Resource professional Dr. Pat Pitsel leads us in an interactive workshop.

The Purpose!

Preparing for a Pandemic – The Time to Plan is When You Have Time to Plan…

…is designed to give senior executives and Human Resources Professionals an extensive, high- level overview of the issues they must be aware of in order to guide their pandemic planning team.

Three major business areas will be addressed, including the provision of critical questions that every President, CEO, COO, or CFO needs to ask.

- Key Human Resource policies that need to be considered
- Communication strategies – pre, during and post pandemic
- Critical supply chain issues to establish continuity of your business

The Expertise!

Dr. Patricia Pitsel is a psychologist, educator and Human Resource professional. A registered psychologist in the Province of Alberta, Pat received her M.Sc.Ed. in counselling from Fordham University in New York City, and her Ph.D. in counselling psychology from the University of Calgary.

Dr. Pitsel has worked with a wide range of organizations and companies in both private and public sector both in training and in a facilitation capacity. Her current work with clients is in the field of preparing for a possible Pandemic, her motto being: The time to plan is when you have time to plan.

Dr. Pitsel has served on a number of community Boards and Agencies including the Calgary Police Commission, The Duke of Edinburgh Young Canadian Challenge Award, the Federation of Calgary Communities and the Calgary Convention Centre. She was awarded the Outstanding Instructor Award from the Faculty of Continuing Education, University of Calgary, for four years in a row; she is enthusiastic, frequently amusing—and recognized as a Calgary leader in the area of Pandemic planning.

Decision makers are encouraged to attend. Human Resources, Purchasing and Executive leaders need to plan NOW for your organization’s business continuity in the event of a Pandemic.

Resources provided are valuable. Register today!

Register to: Myra Lever
mailto:myral@huntpersonnel.ab.ca?subject=Pandemic%20Planning%20Seminar%20-%20March%2022,%202007
(403) 269-6786 (tel)
(403) 237-9016 (fax)

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Friday, February 16, 2007

Single point of failure

Martin McKeay reminds us of the importance of 'single points of failure' in our organizations. He was watching Dr. Michael Osterholm talk on Oprah's show about the inevitability of a flu pandemic and how we can prepare for it.

Apparently many of the drugs we depend on today all come from one or two manufacturing plants in the whole world. Can you imagine how a disaster at one of the plants would affect the entire world's drug supply? Now think about some of the parrallels in your own network and business. How many single points of failure do you have and what is your plan in the case of a failure?

What if someone by accident takes out the cable up the street? Would your business survive until the phone company can get you back online? What about your back-up system for files? What will the impact on your business be?

Step away from the technology for a second and think about the people. Who knows how to get the critical jobs done? Are you reliant on a single person? What if anyone of us get hit by a bus or just get sick for a couple of days?

Dr. Osterholm said there is a lot to learn from Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans. If we look at it that way, then it's really not a question of if a disaster is going to strike, but when. By simply being prepared, we can minimize its impact. So, you may not need to prepare for a hurricane, but you do need to identify your single points of failure.

Click on this link to see the video clip

http://www2.oprah.com/tows/pastshows/200601/tows_past_20060124.jhtml


For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Monday, February 12, 2007

If bird flu grips the nation, doctors will need guns!

The National Health Service (NHS) in the UK will be unable to handle a pandemic, says Dr Andrew Lawson.

"Towards the end of the film Dr Strangelove, Peter Sellers discusses who will go into the mines to survive. A surreal echo came for myself and colleagues recently when we were in discussions about planning for a bird flu pandemic in the UK as part of an ethics committee.

If a true pandemic of bird flu hits these shores then our notions of what we can expect from the National Health Service will have to change. Some people will have to be denied potentially life-saving treatment: there simply will not be enough beds.

Managing such a pandemic is unimaginable. While it is possible to work out what will happen if a bomb goes off in central London — we can empty intensive care units, mobilise extra staff and stop elective work — what we cannot plan for is 200,000 extra patients who need a life support machine.

Arnie Schwarzenegger, the governor of California, says his state will buy thousands more machines, but who will man them? A gut reaction is to blame the government for underresourcing. It is true that we have a chronic underinvestment in intensive care compared with the United States, Australia or other European countries. In any normal situation such a criticism would be valid, but in a pandemic it becomes a statistical irrelevancy.

Who will decide, and on what criteria, those getting the chance of survival? If you and a friend get bird flu and you both end up in hospital, the estimates are that within 48 hours one of you will need life support. At conservative estimates the need for intensive care will be about two-and-a-half times more than we can provide.

Allocation of such resources will have to be either on a first come first served basis or on an explicitly utilitarian basis of capacity to benefit. This shift from an egalitarian free access to a limited one based on expected outcome represents a profound shift in how we deliver healthcare.

Exclusion criteria have already been drawn up in Canada and the United States and include such contentious issues as restriction based on age or on preexisting disease such as cystic fibrosis or metastatic cancer. Saying “no” to a desperately ill child with cystic fibrosis or to a previously fit 85-year-old is not something we are morally or emotionally prepared for. By an ethical analysis it may be the correct thing to do, but will patients or their relatives be prepared to accept it?

Such arguments may, of course, be purely academic. Assumptions as to what we can do are based on the doctors and nurses, porters and technicians turning up to work. But if we do not have enough masks to protect staff dealing with infected patients, then do the staff have a moral duty to turn up for work and get infected themselves? It may be that they go to work but only once — who will want to return home and potentially infect their own family?

In Victoria, Australia, it was suggested that patients would not go to the GP but to a “flu centre”. The idea that patients would go to where flu is concentrated displays an astounding lack of comprehension of human nature. Similarly, staff will be reluctant to put themselves at risk. HSBC, the banking group, was accused of scaremongering when it announced that perhaps 40% of its staff would not turn up for work in the event of a pandemic, but the NHS may suffer just as badly.

It is not only the risk of infection that may stop staff turning up to work. With such limited access to intensive care, it would be expected that hospitals might not be safe places at all. If I decide not to ventilate someone, his or her relatives might not be too happy. Threats to staff are all too common and many are worried about personal security. Consequently it has been suggested that the decision as to who gets the intensive care bed should be taken away from frontline staff in order to protect them.

At a discussion over how we would react to a biological emergency, where casualties would be decontaminated before we resuscitated them, it was asked who would protect the staff. The answer given was hospital security. Pleasant and helpful as they are, these guys are hardly equipped to deal with an angry mob. One doctor said that the most useful thing staff could be given in such an event was a gun.

Another concern is the legal position of staff who refuse treatment. In the absence of any measures put in place to protect them, one can imagine a raft of legal actions being taken out against them.

If attempting to allocate resources on the basis of capacity to benefit is the right thing to do, then those making the decisions need to be protected, otherwise people will not make the decisions required. Perhaps the only equitable and fair way is to shut the intensive care units and limit treatment to the best we can achieve without artificial ventilation".

Dr Andrew Lawson lectures in medical ethics at Imperial College, London, UK.

Source:

TIMESONLINE (2007). If bird flu grips the nation, doctors will need guns (Electronic version). Retrieved February 12, 2007 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article1363825.ece

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

More recent outbreaks in Japan, UK.

BBC News world has confirmed the recent outbreak of bird flu in Japan. Samples taken from 3 000 dead chickens revealed that all had been infected with the H5N1 virus. There have been a number of H5N1 outbreaks in Japan since early 2004, but there have been no reported human deaths from the virus. However, Japan is one of the five countries who have put an immediate ban on the importation of poultry from the UK.

Health officials across Asia are on alert as a growing number of countries have reported cases in both birds and humans in recent weeks.

This past weekend saw the official bird flu outbreak in Suffolk, England. According to the Health Protection Agency, a vet who attended the outbreak is in hospital suffering from a mild respiratory ilness. The vet is undergoing tests at Nottinham hospital and his condition "is causing no immediate concern".

The H5N1 strain which has caused dozens of human deaths in Asia, was found in Suffolk. The H5N1 virus does not pose a large-scale threat to humans because it can't easily be transferred from human to human. However, experts fear the virus could mutate at some point in the future and trigger a bird flu pandemic.

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Information crucial if new flu pandemic hits

The Irish Medical Times says the Government’s response to a flu pandemic must ensure the open flow of information about the pandemic to the public, according to two documents published this week.

The Department of Health and the Health Service Executive (HSE) published the National Pandemic Influenza Plan as well a draft of an advisory document by the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group. A final draft of the group’s advice is expected in April.

The purpose of the National Pandemic Influenza Plan is to limit the effects of any pandemic and to inform the public about pandemic influenza; explain what the Government and the health services are doing to prepare for a possible pandemic; and to give information on what members of the public need to do if there is a pandemic. HSE CEO Prof Brendan Drumm said all sectors of society have a role to play in preparedness and response.

“If a pandemic arises each of us have a role to play in ensuring that it is managed,” he said. The pandemic plan is based on eight core elements of response. These are communications strategy, telephone hotline, public responsibilities, surveillance, antiviral drugs, pandemic vaccine, reorganization of health services, and essential supplies.

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Bird flu spreading again in Asia

Reuters reported an Indonesian hospital was on Monday overwhelmed with patients suffering bird flu symptoms while the virus spread further among flocks in Vietnam and flared anew in Thailand.

A recent spurt of human infections with the H5N1 bird flu virus, which re-emerged in Asia in late 2003, has alarmed health officials. Four Indonesians have died this year after a six-week lull in cases, taking the number of people killed by bird flu in the country to 61, the highest in the world.

Source:

Msnbc (2006). Bird flu spreading again in Asia (Electronic version). Retrieved January 16, 2006 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16635479/

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Friday, January 12, 2007

“Complacency is our biggest enemy” - new head of WHO


Helen Branswell from the Canadian Press says the new head of the World Health organization that took office on Thursday, warns that complacency endangers efforts to prepare for the avian flu.

Dr. Margaret Chan, 59, holds Chinese and Canadian citizenship and received her medical degree from the University of Western Ontario. She was nominated by China for the WHO’s top job. Before taking up the director general position, she served as head of the WHO’s pandemic preparations.

In response to the threat that the H5N1 virus may trigger flu pandemic, she says “...we need to have a balanced view. One should not take the alarmist approach and on the other hand, complacency is our biggest enemy.”

Branswell notes that the sense of a pandemic alert has somewhat subsided in many quarters, because of the decrease in human infections during the past few months. Chan however, says this should be kept in perspective. Chan further reminds us that South Korea and Vietnam are still fighting outbreaks of the virus in poultry. Even though Vietnam had gone more than a year without an outbreak, they suddenly saw the virus flare up again in poultry late last year.

And just before Christmas, three people in Egypt died after contracting the virus. Branswell reports WHO statistics, which points out that 261 people, have been affected since 2003 and 157 of them have died.

During a telephone news conference in Geneva, Chan is reported to say, “We learned from past experience it goes into cycles. There would be periods of high H5N1or low activity". As we are moving into the peak season of influenza again, she advises health authorities to be vigilant.

For additional information on Pandemic preparedness from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta, (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”

Friday, January 5, 2007

Avian flu jumps to humans in Egypt

According to Donald G. McNeil who wrote an article in the International Herald Tribune (Africa & Middle East), several cases of avian flu have spread from poultry to humans in the Nile Delta.

Egyptian health authorities reported nine confirmed human deaths from H5N1 since it was first discovered in birds during February and in a person in March, 2006.

McNeil points out that the health and veterinary authorities cancelled duck hunting season, banned imports of live birds and did not allow anyone to keep birds in their homes. Diseased flock were culled and healthy ones, vaccinated. This task didn’t go well without problems. Not only were there were vaccine shortages, but poor rural people disregarded the newly implemented regulations and hid birds under their beds, as they could not afford to loose their livestock.

An Egyptian newspaper, The Daily Star reported an estimated slaughter of 30 million birds mostly from the poultry industry. Although reports of the disease tapered of during the summer, new cases were reported during the month of September when the bird migration stopped over in the delta area. McNeil says local news media reports suggest that there have been about 20 suspected human cases in the northern part of Egypt.

For more information on Pandemic planning from a business continuity perspective, please feel free to contact Pitsel & Associates Ltd. Calgary, Alberta (403) 245-0550. “The time to plan is when you have time to plan.”